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This Time-Tested Metric Has Foreshadowed Virtually Every Major Stock Market Downturn This Century -- and It's Sounding a Warning Right Now

Outsize risk-taking by investors is one of Wall Street's biggest and most accurate red flags.

This Time-Tested Metric Has Foreshadowed Virtually Every Major Stock Market Downturn This Century -- and It's Sounding a Warning Right Now

Published July 3, 2026 · Category: Finance

Overview

Roughly one month ago, the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-stock-powered Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) all blasted to record highs, driven by artificial intelligence euphoria and better-than-expected corporate earnings.

But this historic Wall Street rally may not be as strong as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indicate. While historical precedent can't concretely guarantee what's to come, the past can act as a teaching tool for investors more often than not.

Details

One time-tested metric, reported monthly, has had an uncanny ability to foreshadow significant stock market downturns since the start of this century -- and for the first time in roughly five years, it's sounding an unmistakable warning.

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Source

Originally published at www.fool.com.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data may be delayed up to 15 minutes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.