This Indicator Has Called Every Recession Over the Last 60 Years -- What It's Saying Now
The Treasury bond market has historically offered an effective signal right before the onset of a recession.
Overview
Trying to predict recessions is one of the most popular pastimes in the financial markets. There's a running joke that says certain people have predicted nine of the past five recessions. Fear tends to sell in the financial media, and there's no shortage of people trying to predict the next big crash.
Thankfully, actual recessions are fairly infrequent, but they are difficult to forecast. There are so many variables that go into any one individual economic environment that any one negative catalyst could be offset by another. There's no foolproof method to determine when an economic slowdown is coming. But there is one indicator that, historically at least, has been fairly reliable.
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Originally published at www.fool.com.