Capital DailyCapital Daily
Markets · Investing · Business
Capital DailyCapital Daily
Finance

There's Now an 82% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike by mid-September -- Here's Why

The Federal Open Market Committee's interest rate decision is about far more than just energy prices.

There's Now an 82% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike by mid-September -- Here's Why

Published July 27, 2026 · Category: Finance

Overview

It's been another stellar year for the timeless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-driven Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), which have hit all-time highs since early June. But the party may be nearing a conclusion, based on the latest interest rate projections.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, which uses 30-day Fed funds futures prices to track the probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes at upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, there's now an 82.4% chance of an FOMC rate hike by the Sept. 16 meeting. That's up from a 52.4% probability of higher interest rates by mid-September, as of July 16.

Details

This sudden surge in Fed rate-hike probability boils down to three factors.

Continue reading

Source

Originally published at www.fool.com.

Related Articles

CD
Capital Daily Newsroom

Capital Daily covers markets, crypto and commodities for Asia & the Middle East — tier-1 desk research, AI-driven analysis, institutional-grade data. Tip our newsroom: [email protected]

Email the newsroom →
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data may be delayed up to 15 minutes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.