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There Is Now An 83% to 90% Chance the Fed Raises Interest Rates on Sept. 16. Here's What History Says Would Happen to the S&P 500 Index Next.

Both CME Group's FedWatch tool and Kalshi indicate a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its meeting this week.

There Is Now An 83% to 90% Chance the Fed Raises Interest Rates on Sept. 16. Here's What History Says Would Happen to the S&P 500 Index Next.

Published September 14, 2026 · Category: Finance

Overview

Following hot inflation data last week, there is now a high likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which dictates monetary policy for the Fed, will raise interest rates by a quarter point when its meeting concludes on Sept. 16.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, which uses 30-day federal funds futures prices to track the probability of a change in the Fed’s benchmark rate, there is over 90% likelihood that the Fed will raise rates at its meeting this week.

Details

There is also an 83% likelihood on the prediction markets platform Kalshi that the federal funds rate will be above 3.75% after the Fed's September meeting, indicating a quarter-point hike.

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Source

Originally published at www.fool.com.

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