The S&P 500 Is Doing Something It Hasn't Done Since 2000. Here's What History Suggests Could Come Next.
The Shiller CAPE ratio is nearing dot-com peak levels. But that doesn't mean it's time to sell your stocks just yet.
Overview
As of June 2026, the Shiller CAPE ratio, which measures current stock prices relative to inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years, stood at 40.96. This level has been touched only one other time in market history: from late 1999 to early 2000. That was right before the tech bubble burst, which resulted in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) falling by half and the Nasdaq-100 dropping by 80%.
Market watchers regularly quote the Shiller CAPE ratio, and many are speculating on whether the next big market crash is imminent. And while it's natural to want to use this number as a sell signal, interpreting it requires a more nuanced view.
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Originally published at www.fool.com.