The S&P 500 Has Only Grown Earnings This Fast Twice Before. History Says This Is What Happens Next
Investors are wondering what stage of the AI boom we're at. The dot-com era offers some clues.
Overview
2026 is emerging as a banner year for the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC). Not necessarily for the index's price growth, which is up 12.6% year-to-date, but because of its earnings growth.
Analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings per share to grow 24%-32% this year, paced by blockbuster growth from AI stocks and the Magnificent Seven, as the Magnificent Seven now makes up about a third of the index, and it doesn't include breakout stocks like Micron, which are posting EPS growth rates above 1,000%. Nvidia, for example, is expected to grow EPS by 95% this year, driven by soaring demand for its chips, which form the backbone of AI infrastructure. Amazon is on track to grow EPS by 79%, benefiting from a massive one-time equity gain on Anthropic, while also seeing its cloud business reaccelerate. Alphabet is similarly realizing a large gain from Anthropic and Space Exploration Technologies, and is expected to grow generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) earnings by 90%.
Details
It's rare for S&P 500 earnings to grow by 25% in a single year when it's not recovering from a recession or some kind of downturn. In fact, it's only happened two other times in the modern era. Let's take a look at what happened then and what it implies for the market today.
Source
Originally published at www.fool.com.