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The Odds of a September Rate Hike Have Plunged, but the Federal Reserve's Job Just Became Infinitely More Challenging

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may be at a crossroads come the September FOMC meeting.

The Odds of a September Rate Hike Have Plunged, but the Federal Reserve's Job Just Became Infinitely More Challenging

Published August 12, 2026 · Category: Finance

Overview

Despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) rallying to several all-time highs in 2026, the fate of the U.S. economy and stock market is far from certain.

Trumpflation (i.e., inflation driven by President Donald Trump's policies) has lifted inflation to multiyear highs and led to a historically divided Federal Reserve. The July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting featured three dissents in favor of a quarter-point rate hike -- the first time we've witnessed three dissents in the same policy direction in a decade.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC are at a precarious crossroads with interest rates. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.

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Originally published at www.fool.com.

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