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Prediction: The Stock Market Will Hit Big Trouble in August. Here's How Much the S&P 500 Will Drop if History Repeats.

The S&P 500 has frequently dropped into correction territory during August in midterm election years.

Prediction: The Stock Market Will Hit Big Trouble in August. Here's How Much the S&P 500 Will Drop if History Repeats.

Published August 1, 2026 · Category: Finance

Overview

The U.S. stock market has historically performed poorly in August. In fact, over the last three decades, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has declined by an average of 0.5% during the month. The benchmark index has only done worse in September, falling by an average of 0.7%.

Unfortunately, August could be particularly brutal this year. Not only does it mark the sixth month of the Iran war, which has created enough inflationary pressure that the market now anticipates higher interest rates, but also the S&P 500 has often dropped into correction territory in August during midterm election years.

Details

Here's what investors need to know.

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Source

Originally published at www.fool.com.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data may be delayed up to 15 minutes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.