Prediction: September Will Be Volatile, but Stocks Will Rally After November Midterms
Expect a downturn before a market rally.
Overview
September has historically been the worst month for the stock market, but I predict that stocks will rally strongly after the November midterm elections, and history backs me up. However, investors will likely have to get through a rough stretch in the market first.
September is only one of two months where the long-term average monthly return for the S&P 500 index (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has been negative. It also isn't just slightly negative, as the month has generated a negative 1.1% average return from between 1928 and 2025, according to Macrobond. The next closest worst month is February, with a negative 0.1% return over the same period.
Details
The monthly average also isn't impacted by just a few bad years. Since 1928, the stock market has had negative returns 55% of the time. Meanwhile, it's the only month of the year when the S&P 500 has a negative median return. When the S&P 500 has a down year in September, the average loss for the month is 4.7%. The return data also isn't cherry-picked. You could start at the beginning of any decade (for example, 1940 or 2010), and the average September return would still be negative.
Source
Originally published at www.fool.com.