How Likely Is It That the Stock Market Crashes Under President Donald Trump in the Second Half of 2026? Here's What History Tells Us.
Historical precedent suggests that the Trump bull market is running on borrowed time.
Overview
Statistically speaking, President Donald Trump and the stock market pair like peanut butter and jelly. Although the ride has been wild at times, outsize stock market returns have been a theme for Trump's tenure in the White House.
During Trump's first term, the timeless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and technology-inspired Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) gained 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively. This outperformance carried over to his second, non-consecutive term, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rallying 24%, 30%, and 36% since his inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025.
Details
Catalysts have been plentiful, with the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), record S&P 500 share buybacks, and better-than-expected corporate earnings fueling excitement on Wall Street. However, bull markets aren't indefinite.
Source
Originally published at www.fool.com.