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Here's Why This Friday Could Be One of the Most Critical Days for the Stock Market in September

The Fed's next interest rate decision could hinge on August's inflation number.

Here's Why This Friday Could Be One of the Most Critical Days for the Stock Market in September

Published September 7, 2026 · Category: Finance

Overview

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures U.S. inflation by tracking the changes in the aggregate price of a basket of goods and services over time. The latest data is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve closely analyzes it to inform its decisions on whether to hike, hold, or cut the federal funds rate -- the interest rate it charges banks for overnight loans. That rate influences a host of other interest rates across the economy.

In July, the CPI increased by 3.4% year over year, so inflation remains significantly above the Fed's long-established target rate of 2%. The central bank would normally hike interest rates in this situation, so Wall Street is on edge ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's next policy meeting on Sept. 15 and 16.

Details

On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the next interest rate decision could hinge on the August CPI report, which will be released on Friday, Sept. 11, at 8:30 a.m. ET. An interest rate hike might be on the table if the inflation reading is higher than expected, and if history is any guide, that would be bad news for the stock market. 

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Source

Originally published at www.fool.com.

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