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Democrats Have a 93% Chance of Retaking at Least One House of Congress on Nov. 3 -- History Says That's Bad News for Stocks

There’s a silver lining to even the direst stock market forecasts.

Democrats Have a 93% Chance of Retaking at Least One House of Congress on Nov. 3 -- History Says That's Bad News for Stocks

Published October 9, 2026 · Category: Finance

Overview

The next four weeks are potential game-changers for the U.S. economy and stock market. The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) reveal is five days away (Oct. 14), the Federal Reserve's October meeting is less than three weeks away (Oct. 28), and midterm elections are knocking on the door (Nov. 3).

The latter event, midterm elections, could be especially impactful on the U.S. economy and Wall Street's major stock indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC). While not all decisions on Capitol Hill directly affect the stock market, our elected officials do oversee fiscal policy, which can impact corporate America.

Image source: Official White House Photo by Molly Riley.

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Originally published at www.fool.com.

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