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Are Stocks Going to Plunge if Congress Is Split Under President Donald Trump? Here's What History Says About Stock Market Returns in This Scenario.

Nearly a century of historical return data shows what happens when the political puzzle pieces are rearranged on Capitol Hill.

Are Stocks Going to Plunge if Congress Is Split Under President Donald Trump? Here's What History Says About Stock Market Returns in This Scenario.

Published September 5, 2026 · Category: Finance

Overview

Since the late 1890s, roughly three-quarters of all presidential terms have ended with the stock market delivering gains. But under President Donald Trump, the annualized returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) have been higher than under most other presidents.

While a significant chunk of these gains traces to the evolution of artificial intelligence and has little to do with the goings-on in Washington, D.C., fiscal policy changes implemented on Capitol Hill can impact business growth rates and the stock market. This places the spotlight squarely on the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Details

For the first two years of President Trump's non-consecutive second term, he'll have enjoyed a unified government, with Republicans controlling a majority of seats in both houses of Congress. But this ideal scenario for the president may be about to change.

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Source

Originally published at www.fool.com.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data may be delayed up to 15 minutes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.